Forex Technical Analysis for 10/01-10/05 Week

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: buy.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3908	1.3985	1.4125	1.4202	1.4342	1.4419	1.4559
GBP/USD	1.9804	1.9944	2.0208	2.0348	2.0612	2.0752	2.1016
USD/JPY	113.02	113.52	114.17	114.67	115.32	115.82	116.47
EUR/JPY	158.92	159.97	161.87	162.92	164.82	165.87	167.77

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.4001	1.4158	1.4218	1.4375	1.4435
GBP/USD	1.9944	2.0208	2.0348	2.0612	2.0752
USD/JPY	113.52	114.17	114.67	115.32	115.82
EUR/JPY	159.97	161.87	162.92	164.82	165.87

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.4147	1.4206	1.4226	1.4246	1.4286	1.4306	1.4326	1.4385
GBP/USD	2.0249	2.0360	2.0397	2.0434	2.0508	2.0545	2.0582	2.0693
USD/JPY	114.18	114.49	114.60	114.70	114.92	115.02	115.13	115.44
EUR/JPY	162.16	162.97	163.24	163.51	164.05	164.32	164.59	165.40

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.4272	2.0480	115.57	165.35
Support:	1.4055	2.0076	114.42	162.40

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.4278	2.0489	115.18	163.96
61.8%	1.4195	2.0335	114.74	162.83
50.0%	1.4170	2.0287	114.61	162.49
38.2%	1.4144	2.0239	114.47	162.14
23.6%	1.4112	2.0180	114.30	161.71
0.0%	1.4061	2.0085	114.03	161.01

EUR/USD Reaches New Historical Maximums

With the consumer confidence surveyed in this September fall beneath the level of 1985 (from 105.6 to 99.8) the U.S. dollar can't hold its position and loses almost 100 pips on EUR/USD rallying it to a new historical maximum at 1.4154.

While mortgage problems in U.S.A. continue to crush real estate sector throwing existing home sales to 5.5 millions in August (in July this number was 250,000 higher), consumer confidence - one of the main indicators of economy potential fall below any expectations by almost 6 points.

Considering the latest FOMC decision on interest rates it is not really hard to predict their reactions if today's news releases will set a tendency for the next month, leaving Fed with bad macroeconomical data. Then another 0.50% can be cut by the end of 2007 and EUR/USD may pass 1.4500 level without a stop.

EUR/USD - 1.4500 by the End of This Year?

With the Fed's rather predictable decision on interest rates cut by 0.50% September 18 (last Wednesday) dollar was doomed to cross the 1.4000 level (on EUR/USD). Its fall continued through all days left after the Fed's statement release. Hitting historically high levels with the maximum at 1.4120, USD ended last week above 1.4000, thus opening further opportunities for the EUR/USD to go to the new maximums.

This week can show (or maybe even it should show) some correction - fall back to 1.3900-1.4000 level is possible, but it is very unlikely that EUR/USD will close below 1.4000.

The main question is if the EUR/USD has enough vigor to rally to 1.4500? Or does its potential end in the low 1.4000-1.4100 levels? If we look at USD interest rates - they are still quite high. 4.75% provide a lot of place for the Fed to cut them in order save the stock and real estate market bubbles. On the other hands with the explosive end of all carry trade and consequential inevitable U.S. real estate sector collapse, Fed can decide to stay away from interest rates and with the fall of stock market USD will rise. But it is very unbelievable scenario for it to happen before the end of 2007. So, the best choice for now is to look at Fed and stay bullish on EUR/USD as long as Fed keeps on saving the financial markets, not the dollar.

Hedging Strategies in Forex Trading

Today I am presenting a new article about Forex trading - 100% Hedging Strategies. As the title suggests the whole article is dedicated to earning money on Forex via hedging different currency pairs and different interest rates. Author Yannis Karamanakis gives a simple list of steps needed to perform a successful hedging trading on Forex market.

Forex Technical Analysis for 09/24-09/28 Week

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: buy.
USD/JPY trend: hold.
EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3615	1.3722	1.3906	1.4013	1.4197	1.4304	1.4488
GBP/USD	1.9648	1.9764	1.9982	2.0098	2.0316	2.0432	2.0650
USD/JPY	111.80	112.88	114.20	115.28	116.60	117.68	119.00
EUR/JPY	156.05	157.42	160.09	161.46	164.13	165.50	168.17

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3741	1.3945	1.4032	1.4236	1.4323
GBP/USD	1.9764	1.9982	2.0098	2.0316	2.0432
USD/JPY	112.88	114.20	115.28	116.60	117.68
EUR/JPY	157.42	160.09	161.46	164.13	165.50

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3930	1.4010	1.4037	1.4063	1.4117	1.4143	1.4170	1.4250
GBP/USD	2.0017	2.0109	2.0140	2.0170	2.0232	2.0262	2.0293	2.0385
USD/JPY	114.19	114.85	115.07	115.29	115.73	115.95	116.17	116.83
EUR/JPY	160.53	161.64	162.01	162.38	163.12	163.49	163.86	164.97

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.4105	2.0374	117.14	164.82
Support:	1.3814	2.0040	114.74	160.78

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.4120	2.0213	116.37	162.84
61.8%	1.4009	2.0085	115.45	161.30
50.0%	1.3975	2.0046	115.17	160.82
38.2%	1.3940	2.0007	114.89	160.34
23.6%	1.3898	1.9958	114.54	159.75
0.0%	1.3829	1.9879	113.97	158.80

Forex Technical Analysis for 09/17-09/21 Week

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: hold.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3623	1.3695	1.3784	1.3856	1.3945	1.4017	1.4106
GBP/USD	1.9654	1.9854	1.9964	2.0164	2.0274	2.0474	2.0584
USD/JPY	110.56	111.57	113.47	114.48	116.38	117.39	119.29
EUR/JPY	151.29	153.21	156.63	158.55	161.97	163.89	167.31

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3699	1.3794	1.3860	1.3955	1.4021
GBP/USD	1.9854	1.9964	2.0164	2.0274	2.0474
USD/JPY	111.57	113.47	114.48	116.38	117.39
EUR/JPY	153.21	156.63	158.55	161.97	163.89

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3785	1.3830	1.3844	1.3859	1.3889	1.3904	1.3918	1.3963
GBP/USD	1.9903	1.9988	2.0016	2.0045	2.0101	2.0130	2.0158	2.0244
USD/JPY	113.77	114.57	114.84	115.10	115.64	115.90	116.17	116.97
EUR/JPY	157.11	158.58	159.07	159.56	160.54	161.03	161.52	162.99

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3927	2.0365	115.49	160.47
61.8%	1.3865	2.0247	114.38	158.43
50.0%	1.3847	2.0210	114.04	157.80
38.2%	1.3828	2.0173	113.69	157.17
23.6%	1.3804	2.0128	113.27	156.39
0.0%	1.3766	2.0055	112.58	155.13

Dollar Strengthens on Average Economic Data

EUR/USD is closing below 1.3900 level after a major rally earlier this week. The main driver for the growth were the market expectations for the FOMC to lower the interest rates by at least 0.25% next week, while last two days' correction can be a reflections of some less confident traders, that are sure that if FOMC won't lower rates or will stay with 0.25% decrease for a longer period, then markets will have to play back current growth. Lack of surprise data helped the second type of traders today.

U.S. export (excluding agricultural) and import (excluding oil) prices changed by 0.1% and -0.1% respectively in August, while July brought -0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Retail sales were up by 0.3% in August, which is lower than both July growth by 0.5% and the same expected value for August.

Industrial capacity utilization in August remained at the 82.2% level as it has been in July, while the market was expecting decline by 0.2%.

Manufacturers' and trade business inventories rose by 0.5% in July compared to 0.4% growth in June. This is a slightly more optimistic number than 0.3% growth expected by the market.

EUR/USD Stagnating After $116.9B U.S. Budget Deficit

This week EUR/USD rallied to the new historically high levels breaking above 1.3900 level (and staying there for some time). Possible rate cuts series in the nearest future by Fed caused this dollar fall. Almost 75% of expert currency trading analysts questioned about Fed's decision on 18th of September are sure that Fed will cut rates at least by 0.25%. Many expect 1.00% by the end of 2007. This heats the stocks market, but cause dollar to go south against EUR, JPY and ПИЗю

U.S. Treasury reported its monthly statement on U.S. budget showing $116.9 billions deficit - more than $30 billions worse than expected and more than twice worse than previous year for August. Nevertheless, EUR/USD is fluctuating near 1.3900 level and didn't jump up on this news.

Initial jobless claims for the previous week came out at 319k - better than expected 325k, but still worse than previous 315k.

Daily Fozzy Method E-Book by Michael Dunbar

A new e-book is now available for download from my site - it is called "The Daily Fozzy Method" (written by Michel Dunbar from http://www.forex-rewards.com). It describes a Forex trading strategy based on D1 timeframe with RSI, ATR and 28-EMA indicators. It is very simple to follow with the entry and exit techniques thoroughly described in this e-books. A good starting strategy e-book for the new traders that wish to trade on daily chart rather than hasty intraday charts.

Forex Technical Analysis for 09/10-09/14 Week

EUR/USD trend: buy.
GBP/USD trend: buy.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3735	1.3458	1.3612	1.3705	1.3859	1.3952	1.4106
GBP/USD	2.0256	1.9937	2.0111	2.0218	2.0392	2.0499	2.0673
USD/JPY	117.41	110.98	112.18	114.33	115.53	117.68	118.88
EUR/JPY	159.36	153.87	155.00	156.83	157.96	159.79	160.92

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3473	1.3644	1.3720	1.3891	1.3967
GBP/USD	1.9937	2.0111	2.0218	2.0392	2.0499
USD/JPY	110.98	112.18	114.33	115.53	117.68
EUR/JPY	153.87	155.00	156.83	157.96	159.79

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3631	1.3699	1.3722	1.3744	1.3790	1.3812	1.3835	1.3903
GBP/USD	2.0131	2.0209	2.0234	2.0260	2.0312	2.0338	2.0363	2.0441
USD/JPY	111.55	112.47	112.78	113.08	113.70	114.00	114.31	115.23
EUR/JPY	154.50	155.32	155.59	155.86	156.40	156.67	156.94	157.76

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.3782	2.0446	116.61	158.88
Support:	1.3535	2.0165	113.26	155.92

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3797	2.0324	116.47	158.66
61.8%	1.3703	2.0217	115.19	157.53
50.0%	1.3674	2.0184	114.80	157.18
38.2%	1.3644	2.0150	114.40	156.83
23.6%	1.3608	2.0109	113.91	156.40
0.0%	1.3550	2.0043	113.12	155.70

Nonfarm Payrolls Drop In August

EUR/USD spiked high almost reaching 1.3800 level as the U.S. nonfarm payrolls for the August decreased by 4,000. Nonfarm payrolls is one of the most important measures for the employment market of the United States, which in its turn serves as the indicator of the economy health. A fall by 4k is the lowest monthly value since 2003. This is certainly a bad sign for the overall U.S. economy, which will be (and already was) treated by the financial markets not in the favor of U.S. stocks or USD. Other macroeconomical data became available today too.

Average hourly earning in August grew at the same rate as in July - by 0.3%. Overall unemployment rate remained at 4.6%. All data came out without surprise - at the expected levels.

Business wholesale inventories in July increased by 0.2%, while in June they grew by 0.5% and analysts expected the same growth in July.

Better Than Average Data From U.S. Pushes EUR/USD Above 1.3700

This is a bit confusing situation for the financial markets, since the good economical data from United States should empower USD causing EUR/USD to fall, but today good data on labor productivity and ISM services index caused EUR/USD to soar. This can be explained by the increased optimism in the U.S. economy which causes more big traders to continue carry trading, during which USD is in a downtrend.

U.S. crude oil inventories in the past week fell (again) by 3.9 billion barrels, but still remain at a high level for the current seasonal average. One of the possible reasons for this decrease can lie in a hurricane season (which is quite weak in this year so far).

Initial jobless claims in the past week dropped to 318,000 compared to 337,000 previous week, which while still a high number is better than 330,000 expected by the market. But the more important employment data - nonfarm payrolls for August, will come out tomorrow.

ISM services index (business activity) in August came out at 55.8 level - the same as the month before. This is a good level for this index, especially when analysts predicted its fall to 54.5.

Nonfarm productivity in second quarter of 2007 (revised value) increased by 2.6%. This growth exceeded both the market expectations (2.4%) and the Q1 value (1.8%). High productivity in the nonfarm area is a good sign for the U.S. economy, which by the end of 2007 can show a very strong growth.

Euro Recovers Against USD After ISM PMI and Construction Spending

EUR/USD regained part of its losses, received earlier this day and yesterday, after some important but not encouraging data from United States. EUR/USD is still in the flat zone (speaking in long terms), but some strong intraday volatility hints for possible breakout with the direction still unknown.

PMI index by Institute for Supply Management (ISM) was reported today and came out by 0.1 point lower than expected decrease from 53.8 to 53.0 - at 52.9 level. This can hint for a probably weak position of the U.S. manufacturing sector, which will show itself in the later months.

Construction spending in July fell by 0.4% compared to the June amounts. It was much worse than the expected 0.1% fall. So the crisis in the real estate sector continues in time and strengthens in powers without any signs of recovering with all those money interventions by Fed.

Mini Forex Accounts More Mini On LiteForex

LiteForex announced about some changes for their mini Forex trading accounts. These changes became active today, on September 3rd. Decreasing the minimum trading lot size, margin requirement for hedging positions and minimum deposit amount is a step towards the more easier trading for small traders and Forex newbies:

Aspiring to provide to our clients the best trading conditions on international financial markets, the group of companies LiteForex (www.LiteForex.org) has made the following improvements of our trading conditions:

1. Decreased minimum contract size for MINIForex accounts, - starting September 03, 2007 the minimum contract size for MINIForex accounts becomes 0.01 lot with step 0.01; The maximum contract size was not changed and remains 10 lots.

2. Decreased margin requirements to keep opposite (locked) positions (AKA "hedged margin") on MINIForex and 100KForex accounts, - starting September 03, 2007 the hedged margin for all Forex instruments (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURGBP, EURCHF, EURJPY, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, CHFJPY, CADCHF, AUDCHF, NZDCHF, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, AUDCAD, NZDCAD, AUDNZD, including XAUUSD, XAGUSD) on MINIForex and 100KForex accounts becomes 25%. Previously hedged margin was 50%.

3. Removed the limitation on minimum initial deposit for MINIForex accounts, - starting September 03, 2007 there is no minimum deposit requirements for MINIForex accounts.

Carnival of Forex Trading - September 1, 2007

Welcome to the September 1, 2007 edition of carnival of forex trading.

Jimmy Atkinson presents The Day Trader's Toolkit: 100 Free Online Apps for Professionals posted at Forex Blog.

Dr. Barry Burns presents Question: What is the Best Interval for Day Trading? Part 2 posted at Top Dog Trading, saying, "Using the right time interval in your charts is critical for success. Heres' how to find the perfect time-frame for your charts."

Laura presents Top 100 Day Trading Blogs posted at Currency Trading.net.

Vahid Chaychi presents What Is Forex and How to Make Money with It? posted at Internet and Search Engine Marketing, saying, "Forex is one of the best work at home opportunities. It is good because it doesn't need any marketing, referring and recruiting. If you learn it properly, you can make lots of money but it can be also risky if you start trading before you learn."

Sagar Satapathy presents 11 Reasons Poker Players Make Great Forex Traders posted at Currency Trading.net.

Adel Ayari presents Global Forex Trading posted at Dealer's Journal.

That concludes this edition. You can submit your blog article to the next edition of carnival of forex trading using our carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on our blog carnival index page.

Forex Technical Analysis for 09/03-09/07 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: sell.
EUR/JPY trend: sell.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3727	1.3480	1.3554	1.3637	1.3711	1.3794	1.3868
GBP/USD	2.0203	1.9838	1.9989	2.0110	2.0261	2.0382	2.0533
USD/JPY	116.44	112.57	114.17	115.46	117.06	118.35	119.95
EUR/JPY	159.19	152.19	154.97	157.31	160.09	162.43	165.21

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3478	1.3551	1.3635	1.3708	1.3792
GBP/USD	1.9838	1.9989	2.0110	2.0261	2.0382
USD/JPY	112.57	114.17	115.46	117.06	118.35
EUR/JPY	152.19	154.97	157.31	160.09	162.43

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3543	1.3586	1.3600	1.3615	1.3643	1.3658	1.3672	1.3715
GBP/USD	1.9989	2.0064	2.0089	2.0114	2.0164	2.0189	2.0214	2.0289
USD/JPY	114.18	114.98	115.24	115.51	116.03	116.30	116.56	117.36
EUR/JPY	154.94	156.35	156.82	157.29	158.23	158.70	159.17	160.58

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.3674	2.0201	117.71	158.69
Support:	1.3517	1.9929	114.82	153.60

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3719	2.0232	116.75	159.64
61.8%	1.3659	2.0128	115.65	157.68
50.0%	1.3641	2.0096	115.31	157.08
38.2%	1.3622	2.0064	114.96	156.48
23.6%	1.3599	2.0024	114.54	155.73
0.0%	1.3562	1.9960	113.86	154.52