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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

EUR/USD Can't Stay Above 1.3700

After breaking back above the 1.3700 mark EUR/USD fell below this level as the economic releases on inflation and consumer confidence were released today. Struggling below this level, if continued, may precede the new bearish trend in EUR/USD, while rallying and staying above will mean a return to a long-lasting EUR/USD bull trend.
Personal income and spending June numbers came out today close to the predicted values - 0.4% to 0.5% and 0.1% to 0.1% respectively. Core PCE inflation came out at 0.1% level - below the 0.2% predicted. This means that the inflation indicators are not high yet.
Chicago PMI - a major manufacturing index for the North-West region - decreased significantly from 60.2 to 53.4, while 58.5 was expected.
Construction spending numbers continue to warn the market about the crisis in realty sector showing a decrease of -0.3%, while analysts expected 0.2% growth.
Consumer confidence - the main surprise of a day which kept dollar below 1.3700 and stock markets high - came out at the 112.6 level (far above 105.4 expected) - at its highest value since 2001.

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Sunday, July 29, 2007

Interview with FXcast Forex Broker

FXcast Forex broker gladly accepted my offer to give an interview for EarnForex readers. Niklas (member of FXcast IB Management) answered my questions about Forex trading, FXcast past and future plans and a present Forex brokerage market condition. A brief description of FXcast can found here.

For how long do you offer your on-line Forex trading services now? Does FXcast have any off-line brokerage experience prior to starting a site?

We offer online trading services with FXcast since over 2 years now. FXcast has worked as broker in a protected private environment. The website has gone public on the 1st of May 2007 after huge investments for automation and effectiveness of our website information and the procedures behind it. The goal is nearly 100% automated processes from account opening to withdrawals from trading accounts.

The founders of FXcast have each more than 15 years experience in brokerage, system development, customer relationship management, risk management, execution and whatever is important for our core business.

Why ‘FXcast’? Any particular reason for this name?

The name is a synonym for Forex Forecast – the only method in our opinion to trade successfully in the market. If it is a technical analysis based forecast or an economic based or a mixture of both – without a fundamental analysis and resulting forecast trading is only gambling. If a trader wants gambling – fine. If he wants profit he must stop gambling and start serious trading.

With so many other retail on-line Forex brokers, it takes some really distinctive advantages for a new broker to get into the market. What can you call FXcast’s main features to attract traders?

We see a lot of unique selling points, amongst others 36 currency pairs, tight spreads, fast and exact execution. But undoubtedly a major point is the easy-to-use account opening and funding – with small amounts done within 3 minutes or less. And we have a lot more facts which let us dominate the crowd: the transparency of the customer relationship management procedures as an example. Each single process is documented in the member’s area. Customers are able to see each single personal action – deposits, withdrawals, account management, personal data maintenance and more which gives them trust and believe in our reliability. All is traceable and documented and we can avoid the usual misunderstandings in email and phone call procedures. We are fast in our processes. We think the fastest FX broker worldwide. This is our goal: fast, reliable, accurate and transparent and absolutely concentrated on our core business: Our mission is to provide the opportunity for individuals and corporate customers around the world to trade currency markets under the most favourable conditions, such as enjoyed by financial institutes, banks, or brokerage companies. No marketing phrases – just forex brokerage business.

Another important fact is: FXcast is best choice for partners. For the above reasons partners can recommend FXcast with a real good feeling to their customers. And: FXcast has a unique affiliation model, a great chance for everyone to build up a 4 level partner model and become a prime partner of FXcast climbing up step by step within the IB levels. Every customer of a partner has a chance to hire other customers by becoming a partner himself.

And this promotion model is absolutely fair. We hear from the market that very often customers bypass their IBs to become an IB themselves with the Broker and the IB looses his customers. This is impossible with FXcast. Each partner gets the same commission when he starts – so why now bypass the IB? There is no advantage for anyone. Winning successful partners is a big plus for an IB – they promote him to the next level with their customers and everyone earns – a typical win win situation.

Of course we know that other Brokers pay more to their IBs in the beginning. But big commissions must be earned – of course from the customer. This short term thinking is not our style. For a stable and profitable relationship FXcast is the better choice – the commission model pays back very soon and the chances are tremendous.

The only precondition is a financial oriented website – not even any knowledge of the FX market.

Forex trading is not gambling, is it? What would you say to the people thinking that it is?

I am not quite sure that you are right. What should hinder a gambler to use our Swing platform? It is of course a platform to trade in the FX market. But we have developed it mainly for beginners and customers who want to “test” this market without real knowledge and experience. How it reacts, how charts are running and what the influence factors are for trading – news, overnight situations, sudden market movements and more. And we offer this for real low risk – starting with 1 USD! Of course there is a gambling factor included as you cannot get out of the trade until S/L or T/P is reached – like a roulette ball – rien ne va plus. Is the Forex market not much more interesting as a Casino?

But for the Pro trading terminal you are right! Successful trading needs time and money for education. But all successful paper trading means nothing when it comes to the point of trading real money. Real money is different – this is pure psychology. Therefore we offer customers with 10USD or 10 EUR the option to start their career with a low budget before they try to make real profit. Even a 0.01 lot real trade is different from paper trading – an excellent chance to get practice. You have to learn it with a low real risk but real money.

Does FXcast have a division which trades Forex, or do you only offer services to retail traders and prefer to stay off the market yourself?

Currently we only offer retail services for self traders.

Forex trading is becoming more and more accessible to people of all income sizes. How do you describe your potential customer? A rich person who seeks to increase his investments or a young and purposeful woman or man?

Our customers come from each group of society and wealth. There are traders with 1 USD and traders with 1 million USD accounts and higher. We see all trader types and all kinds of risks. Important is that everyone is a customer for us, independent from the deposit.

We are neutral and try to fill customer positions to the best possible price – if it is 0.01 lot or 1,000 lot.

You have a lot of interesting features on your site, like many deposit options and your Swing platform. Do you plan any new features?

We have many options in our portfolio. Some more internet payments methods are just in programming. And a lot of new features, which we will publish when ready. Our business is an online business, fast and reactive – so must our website. We have to go with a fast market and we will do it.

Our customers and the market will see some real exiting and fundamental news coming soon. We will inform you.

What do you think are the main obstacles for the new Forex traders finding a right Forex broker with whom they can cooperate on a long-term basis?

This is in our opinion the transparency of processes, the trade execution, the service and a fair price. The customer should have the feeling that he is treated as a partner – not as a victim. Of course you have to feel comfortable with the trading platform.

The information “regulated” does not automatically mean that this broker is a good broker. How effective is his regulation organization? Which influence does the regulation have on the broker’s behavior in trading situations? We think there is much scam on the internet as in every business.

Have a look on the broker’s website - your prime contact to the broker. Is all information useful or is it mostly marketing and gimmicks? How fast do you find the relevant information? Are all processes explained carefully? Are there hidden fees? How easy can you get more information from the broker? Are there special email addresses for each category of questions? Does he have a live chat during his office times? How responsive is the broker to your email questions? Is there an area which shows all your past processes and everything which you have done with this broker for absolute transparency and reliability? How fast is deposit and withdrawal? Do you feel comfortable with the trading platform(s)? Does it hang in critical situations? Are there gaps in the charts? Are you stopped out in some situations and should not be? You must have a deep look for example if the broker sends you trading signals. Are they really helpful? We think you should better use an external independent provider.

A lot of questions – and there are of course more to ask. But the main question is: do you feel comfortable with the broker’s behavior? There is a big misunderstanding in the market: that the spread is important for your trading. This is simply a rumor and professional traders know that it is a very big well known fundamental error. Professional traders often work with increased spread for covering their cost with rebates. Why do they make profit? Only some important facts decide if you win or loose: your knowledge and experience as a trader and the knowledge and experience of the broker. But in no case the spread. A fair spread guarantees the profit of the broker – which is important for your long term and stable cooperation with him. If your broker does not make profit you will loose too. And if the margin of the broker is too small he will try to get it back from you – the customer.

Public forums are often not really helpful – many frustrated specious “experts” are claiming about brokers which do not let them make profit. The real reason behind is often that simply the system does not work. The well known scalping machines which make a million in some days – they are only working on demo accounts. But of course to point to the broker is easier than developing a successful strategy. Professional traders do not have the time to discuss in forums. They have to trade.

Whom do you see as FXcast’s main competitor in the on-line Forex brokers market?

We don’t talk about competition. We think we are unique with our procedures and service. But of course other brokers may think that, too.

What do you think about Forex scam problem in the on-line Forex brokers market? Is it a real threat for the business or will customers learn to recognize the fraudulent sites, leaving them without a prey?

This seems to be a real problem as these cheating shops spoil a big part of the market. But if customers follow the words from question 3 they will soon sort the wheat from the chaff. We are not part of this – as our IBs published on our website will tell you. By the way – we only publish IBs working exclusively and successful for us – always the best in each country.

What is your insight on the future of the on-line Forex trading? What role will e-currencies play in this future?

We think the Forex market is a growing market. As shares and other derivates are complex and expensive and you can only be successful with big amounts it will definitely grow tremendously. On the other hand the number of FX brokers will decrease. There are so many small shops without experience, knowledge and financial background on the market that most of them will not survive. Traders become mature and will see soon which brokers really offer good and fair business. This is the reason why we see our future bright.

E-Currencies will become more and more important. After the E*Gold disaster the market moves again. But not as some governments and banks want the market to move. The world is going www – and so will payment methods. We are excellently prepared – our online payments options will grow. For small deposits the best and cheapest way to fund accounts. Nevertheless – for big accounts the wire transfer from a bank will be the most important way.

In both themes we see a tremendous future for FXcast. We are no old fashioned broker; we are modern and cooperative; we can handle unlimited numbers of customers with our high automated processes per day hour or minute. The only restriction is the internet and hardware – both can be scaled. We do not need huge staff – we are here to serve our customers in the background. Our philosophy is as different from the FX broker jam as it could be. We are prepared for the future market – what about your broker?

What would be your advice for new Forex traders who are just starting their experience on the Forex market?

Do not believe marketing and “best spread”. Good quality needs a fair price. Too low prices make quality decrease. From there on, it’s learning and investing much time, over day and night. Trading is a 24 hours job. And finding a fair, reliable and good partner – the best you can find. Maybe FXcast.


As you see, FXcast thoroughly answered all questions. And, although, some of the answer can look too "marketing" and to some people - debatable, it is still a very good sign that broker wishes to communicate with its existing or potential clients. If you have any comments on this interview or ideas for the future interviews you can leave a comment here, or via the contact form.

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Saturday, July 28, 2007

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/30-8/3 Week

General trend: bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
1.3336 1.3483 1.3558 1.3705 1.3780 1.3927 1.4002

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
1.3465 1.3522 1.3687 1.37441.3909

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
1.3511 1.3572 1.3592 1.3613 1.3653 1.3674 1.3694 1.3755

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:1.3853
Support:1.3631

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0% 1.3852
61.8% 1.3767
50.0% 1.3742
38.2% 1.3715
23.6% 1.3682
0.0% 1.3630

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Friday, July 27, 2007

EUR/USD Faces New Downfall And U.S. GDP Data Released

EUR/USD dropped to its more than two weeks old minimum touching 1.3630 today while the market expected good data on GDP of United States for the seconds quarter of 2007. Breaking below 1.3230 for EUR/USD will mean a big trend breakout, but while it is traded higher a temporal correction should be considered.
U.S. GDP in Q2 2007 rose by 3.4% - a very good increase after 0.6% (revised from 0.7%) in Q1. It is also greater than expected number - 3.2%. Chain deflator for Q2 came out slightly lower than expected - 2.7% against 3.4% expected. Overall these are quite good results for the Q2. If U.S. economy can keep up with this pace in the second half of 2007, then it would add some more power to both stocks and Forex markets.
Today also Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July became available - 90.4 against 91.5 - lower than expected but still at a high level, showing a good sign for the U.S. economical health in general.

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Thursday, July 26, 2007

Bad U.S. News Keeping EUR/USD Above 1.3700

Today EUR/USD was ranging between 1.3690 and 1.3770 marks retracing a half of the yesterday's dollar rally. U.S. economy had some bad news for dollar bulls with only one bad for Euro bulls.
Manufactured durable goods orders in June increased by only 1.4% which was much lower the expected number - 2.0%, but still better than May result of decline in 2.8%.
Initial jobless claims for the last week surprisingly came out at the 301,000 level, slightly below the 310,000 number which was predicted by financial experts. Being the only positive news for the day, job market is still doing quite well, especially comparing to realty market.
Help-wanted advertising index isn't a very influential indicator of the economy growth but its decline to 26 (its staying at 27 was expected) can be an early sign for some problems on the U.S. employment market.
New homes sales in June dropped significantly from 893K (revised from 915K) to 834K units, continuing the series of bad news from the real estate sector of economy.

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Wednesday, July 25, 2007

EUR/USD Drops Down With Bad Data on Housing and Oil Inventories

EUR/USD today is showing a very intensive bearish rally dropping to 1.3700 level after failing to take over the 1.3850 resistance mark. The major reason for such market behavior can be seen in a technical correction which should have came after the overbought condition in EUR/USD reaches its peak. Personally I thought that this correction will come a bit later letting the EUR/USD to get higher before falling down, but market is market - U.S. dollar is rallying despite of bad macroeconomic statistics which came out today.
Existing home sales - a major indicator of the U.S. economy since the crisis in the real estate sector began earlier this year - came out at 5.75 million units - below the expected 5.90 million and below the previous number of 5.98 million in May.
Crude oil inventories in the week ending on July 20 declined by 1.1 million barrels, while the motor gasoline inventories rose by 0.8 million barrels and distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels.

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Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Automated Trading Systems Article

A new trading article was added to my site today - Automated Trading Systems for Financial Markets and Recommendations for Their Usage by Nikita Laukhin. It describes existing financial trading platforms software which allows automated trading. Existing software and scripts are analysed from different points of view - creating (programming) and using. The main features of every system are discussed to help the traders that want to automatize their trading process to chose the right platform to go with.

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Monday, July 23, 2007

MT4 and MT3 Broker

A new Forex broker with quite a long on-line history and good stand (since 2004) was added to the Forex brokers section of a site. FIBOGroup allows CFD and Forex trading via both Metatrader 4 and Metatrader 3 trading platforms. The minimum deposit is $300 and the leverage at which account are set up is 1:200. At FIBOGroup accounts are easily opened on-line, but they don't allow e-gold deposits (closed this option due to the problems with e-gold) - but they may reopen this option in future.

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Sunday, July 22, 2007

Forex Brokers Update

A new addition to Forex brokers section - iFOREX is a 2 years old Forex broker with two trading platforms available to their customers - web based one, which can be ran only via IE and a dowanloadable which is similar to the platform used in FXCM Forex broker. iFOREX doesn't allow demo accounts and is not regulated by any financial authority, so it is quite a risky broker for serious traders. But a minimum of $100 looks attractive for the new Forex traders.
Some changes to FXEgypt broker - first, it is now called FXOpen (Poltek Business Ltd.), second, it offers Futures trading services, third, micro-trading accounts with a $1 bonus and $1 lots are now available.

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Saturday, July 21, 2007

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/23-7/27 Week

General trend: bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
1.3683 1.3719 1.3772 1.3808 1.3861 1.3897 1.3950

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
1.3723 1.3782 1.3812 1.38711.3901

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
1.3777 1.3802 1.3810 1.3818 1.3834 1.3842 1.3850 1.3875

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:1.3834
Support:1.3745

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0% 1.3843
61.8% 1.3809
50.0% 1.3799
38.2% 1.3788
23.6% 1.3775
0.0% 1.3754

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Friday, July 20, 2007

EUR/USD - New Maximums, Then What?

Today EUR/USD renewed its long term maximum once again - 1.3842 is the highest rate since the November 1995. The lack of important economical releases for this day didn't stop EUR/USD bulls from holding Euro above the crucial 1.3800 mark. But how will EUR/USD behave in the near future? Will it go for 1.4000 and then for the new absolute historical maximums? Or will it just stuck in the 1.3800-1.3900 range until the bearish force will pull it down? Let's look at this EUR/USD weekly chart:

Don't be confused with the red arrow - it's just a purposed direction for the next medium term market movement. As seen on the chart a "W" formation of the Wolfe Waves theory can be clearly recognized within the first 4 red-marked waves. The next wave should follow as the correctional for these four. Looking at the chart this forecast is quite obvious. But I am almost sure that before the correction will start (which in my opinion will last for 4-5 weeks with the bottom around 1.3600) current bullish wave will live for another one or two weeks leading EUR/USD to around 1.3900 level. But nevertheless, even if the above mentioned correction will take its place, the further EUR/USD behavior is more bullish-orientated with the possible 1.3400-1.34500 targets by the end of 2007.

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Swissnetbroker – Double Platform Broker

An interesting broker with both Metatrader 4 platform for standard and mini accounts and Currenex advanced trading platform for ECN Forex trading – Swissnetbroker is a Switzerland based Forex brokerage company aiming at both retail and institutional trading services markets. Retail traders will like their MT4 platform and pretty low minimum of $200 with scalping trading style allowed, while big traders will get all the advantages of Currenex ECN platform with 0 pips spread. As for the disadvantages of this broker – only wire transfer deposit/withdraw option and quite a long account registration process.

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Thursday, July 19, 2007

Key Fundamental Forex Data from U.S.

A rich day for the economical news releases from United States was today.
First, the weekly initial jobless claims data came out at the better than expected level showing only 301,000 claims for the previous week which signals the continued moderation of the U.S. unemployment rate.
Second, the leading indicators came out unexpectedly low at -0.3%, while analysts were expecting a growth of 0.1%.
Third, Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index came out at 9.2 - nearly a half of the expected 14.0.
And, at last, today's main news maker - FOMC minutes for the June 27-28 meeting were released today. The main idea of the minutes is that while the in the first quarter of 2007 economy grew at a slightly slowed down pace, the second quarter is more promising with the good news on industrial production and employment indicators; still the main concern for the Committee remain the inflation risks, while the GDP growth is estimated to be rather high in the rest of 2007.

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Pip Forex – Newbie Forex Broker

I’ve written about Pip Forex before, but since then it has changed a lot. Now I see it as a very easy introductory broker for the new traders that don’t want to jump into complicated trading platform, tech analysis or anything that’s beyond simple buy/sell logic. Its easy to use platform allows fast position handling which might also be useful for scalpers (Pip Forex doesn’t limit scalping). Unfortunately one can only trade 4 currency pairs with Pip Forex – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. No advanced charting or limit/stop open orders. So, if you think that you are complete newbie at Forex or need some fast easy platform for some real scalping practice – Pip Forex may fit you.

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Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Mixed Data from U.S. Again

Some more mixed data followed yesterday's PPI and industrial production today. Their affect on EUR/USD could be noticed as it rallied to new decade maximum on 1.3832 and then returned back below the crucial 1.3800 mark. Consumer Price Index was released slightly better than consensus (0.2% against 0.1%, while it was quite low compared to previous 0.7% rise in June 2006). As for real estate sector - a decline in building permits was dubbed with the increase in new housing starts. Business crude oil inventories were also released today and they showed a decline in 449,000 barrels for the last week. FOMC minutes will be released tomorrow and all Forex traders will listen carefully what Ben Bernanke has to say about U.S. economy so far. Some very high volatility can be expected tomorrow.

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Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Two e-gold Forex Brokers for Your Consideration

Today I am introducing two new e-gold Forex brokers to you - MFN and Neuimex. Although they are both accepting e-gold e-currency for funding and cashing out, they are different brokers in many aspects. MFN offers its own trading platform and allows mini Forex accounts from $500 with a leverage up to 1:400, while Neuimex offers a platform based on Metatrader 4 with the minimum account size of $2,500 and no mini lots available. Both brokers allow CFD trading making them somewhat more attractive for stock market addicts (such as myself ;-)) that like to trade everything from a single account. And unlike Neuimex, MFN doesn't allow U.S. citizens to open accounts (probably because of the managed accounts available).

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Day of Economical Releases and EUR/USD Calming

EUR/USD calmed a little today, not reaching 1.3800 level, as the majority of traders expected some important data from U.S. statistics. Data came out mixed, but generally better for dollar than for Euro. Producer Price Index in June this year showed a slight decline (-0.2%), while consensus was at +0.1%. PPI excluding food & energy to he contrary increased by 0.3% (0.2% expected). For the stock market main surprise has been prepared by the U.S. Treasury - Net Foreign Purchases in May were $126.1 billion (against $80.3B expected). Industrial production growth for June (a very important component of GDP) came out at 0.5% and the Industrial Capacity Utilization was at 81.7% (81.4% expected). So what do we get today? Very good signs of economical growth - foreign investments and high productivity - one hand, and disappointing data on inflation on the other hand. More news to come this week, so get ready for some more surprises and try to get some pips when EUR/USD starts rolling again.

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Monday, July 16, 2007

Major Update on Forex Brokers!

A major update was brought to Forex brokers section today. The information was enhanced and restructured in order to be more useful to the visitors and at the same time - more organized, to let the advanced traders find brokers with unique features easily. Here is list of main new features:
  1. PayPal Forex brokers section added.
  2. Forex brokers reviews added - read others' reviews and write your own reviews!
  3. Forex broker rating system added - rate your favorite broker or show others a broker that you dislike!
  4. Information on all brokers is now neatly structured.
Hope you enjoy this update! If you find some bugs or if you have any good ideas to enhance Forex brokers information presented on this site even further, don't hesitate to leave a comment here. And don't forget to review and rate your Forex broker! :-)

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Saturday, July 14, 2007

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/16-7/20 Week

General trend: ranging or slightly bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
1.3429 1.3512 1.3647 1.3730 1.3865 1.3948 1.4083

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
1.525 1.3673 1.3743 1.38911.3961

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
1.3662 1.3722 1.3742 1.3762 1.3802 1.3822 1.3842 1.3902

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:1.3798
Support:1.3580

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0% 1.3813
61.8% 1.3730
50.0% 1.3704
38.2% 1.3678
23.6% 1.3646
0.0% 1.3595

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Friday, July 13, 2007

U.S. Consumer Sentiments at Highs while Dollar at Lows

Today the preliminary consumers sentiment index (by University of Michigan) came out showing surprisingly good results - 92.4 against 86.0 expected - a historically high level of consumers confidence which indicates an uptrend the economy of United States. While consumer sentiment index is at its highest levels, dollar is suffering a continuous EUR/USD rally which showed a new maximum (for more than ten years period) at 1.3813 level today. Perhaps, strong macroeconomic indicators from U.S. prevented EUR/USD from keeping above 1.3800 mark, but it can be broken again at any time soon. Some other U.S. statistics became available today - business inventories growth in May increased from 0.4% to 0.5% (while a growth slowdown to 0.3% was expected). Advance monthly retail sales for June came out unexpectedly bad - falling down by 0.9% (they were expected to remain intact) - which is quite strange considering the high consumers sentiment index.

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New Article about Forex Brokers

David Thorpe - a Forex author which already has been publishing on this site before introduces his new article. In this article David discusses trader-broker relationship model in Forex trading and gives some valuable advices for the traders who have problems with their current broker or haven't yet decided which one to choose for a variety of Forex brokers available:

Are Forex Brokers The Antichrist or is Broker-Bashing one Gigantic Witch Hunt?
- by David Thorpe

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Thursday, July 12, 2007

EUR/USD Uptrend Lowers Pace

EUR/USD, showing three days of straight growth with new monthly maximums every day, slightly lowered its rally today. Almost touching 1.3800 this currency pair stopped at 1.3797 and then rolled back for around 20 pips. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the previous week came out better than expected - 308,000 against 320,000 claims. U.S. trade balance came out at the expected level - $60.0 billions. If tomorrow Friday will be bullish and the 1.3800 level be broken a larger scale uptrend for EUR/USD will begin.

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Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Metatrader Expert Advisors - User's Tutorial

Using Metatrader expert advisors is simple, but sometimes people get confused with it and after downloading a file with the expert advisor a user might get stuck with it without knowing what to do next. This a simple tutorial on how to attach an expert advisor to Metatrader 4 char and activate it.

1. Download your MT4 expert advisor or copy it and save it to your Metatrader's 'experts' folder:

Saving Metatrader 4 Expert Advisor
2. Double click it with your mouse and it will be opened in MQL editor (this editor comes with MT4). There will be a button 'Compile' at the center top of the window. Click it and your expert advisor will be compiled and ready to use. There might be some errors or warnings during the compilation, but in most cases there shouldn't be any. You can try and fix those errors, but it takes time and some programming skills, usually.

Compiling Metatrader 4 Expert Advisor
3. Now, all you need to do is add your expert advisor to the preferred chart and activate it. You can also change some input parameters for the advisor in the Inputs tab:

Adding Metatrader 4 Expert AdvisorThat's it! Now you can enjoy your expert advisor - its signals or its trading (if it is designed to perform trading). Good luck with them!

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Tuesday, July 10, 2007

EUR/USD Renews Its Decade Maximum

Today EUR/USD hit 1.3738 mark renewing its maximum since 1995. So we are at the almost twelve years maximum now and the possibilities for going even farther are getting higher and higher. Not many reasons for such a strong Euro rally for today. The only good ones I can think of - oil prices rising and some Eurozone financial leaders speaking of support for an expensive Euro. Other than that - only some really powerful bullish speculators could EUR/USD in such a dramatical way. Anyway, it's a good time to be in the market and get some more pips on falling dollar when EUR/USD breaks the 1.3800 level.

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Sunday, July 08, 2007

5 Things You Should Never Do In Forex

Revising my recent trades which were made during the last month I still find myself making the same mistakes I've been doing as a newbie trader. The amount of these mistakes lowered, but sometimes emotions overcome the mind and the strategy and as a result - pips are lost. Here is the list of most devastating and stupid things you can make in Forex trading:
  1. Don't place stop-loss - sometimes I just forget to place, sometimes I hope for the price to eventually go in the right way and think that stop-loss will be an obstacle. This is wrong! Always place a stop loss - it's good to have it significantly lower than your targeted profit.
  2. Trade in lots too big - even if you are100% sure that this position will be profitable, don't make it too large - 1%-5% is more than enough. Losing 20% of your deposit will require much more risk to recover.
  3. Overtrade - everyone says that it is bad to overtrade, but for a trader it is always hard to stay away from market when there is "so many opportunities". Just try to set a limit of daily/weekly trades for yourself. Overtrading is a result of the mindless emotions, not your mind, so avoid it.
  4. Closing the winning positions too early - it seems OK to get some guaranteed profit against risking to wait even more. But trading experience proves that early closing for winning positions and waiting for losing positions to go green - is completely wrong. Let your winning positions run and cut your losing ones early!
  5. Following forecasts and signals - for some traders it's hard to avoid this, especially when there is some Forex guru they respect. Trading with your own strategy and full responsibility is the only way that can make you a professional and successful Forex trader.
I am quite sure that you've already read such advices a dozen of times, but they are always good to remember, so consider it just as a helpful memo.

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Saturday, July 07, 2007

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/9-7/13 Week

General trend: bearish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res
1.3419 1.3473 1.3550 1.3604 1.3681 1.3735 1.3812

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup 1st Sup Pivot 1st Res 2nd Res
1.3479 1.3561 1.3610 1.36921.3741

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup3rd Sup 2nd Sup 1st Sup 1st Res 2nd Res 3rd Res 4th Res
1.3554 1.3590 1.3602 1.3614 1.3638 1.3650 1.3662 1.3698

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:1.3643
Support:1.3512

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0% 1.3659
61.8% 1.3609
50.0% 1.3594
38.2% 1.3578
23.6% 1.3559
0.0% 1.3528

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Friday, July 06, 2007

Employment Situation Data in U.S.

Some important macroeconomic data was released in U.S. today - employment situation in June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As it was expected by the financial analysts, the overall unemployment rate in June remained on 4.5% level - which is quite low and is a good indicator for the U.S. economy. Non-farm payrolls in June reached 132,000 which is 7,00 higher than the experts' estimations. May non-farm payrolls were also revised towards the better side - 190,000 from 157,000. Average hourly earnings came out at 0.3% level (as expected), but May data was revised from 0.3% to 0.4%. Overall, this is a good news for the U.S. economics and dollar as well. The Forex market isn't playing this data yet (or it won't) - EUR/USD returned to its 1.3600-1.3650 range, and no serious movement can be seen.

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Thursday, July 05, 2007

New Forex Book on Trading Psychology

Another free Forex e-book is now available for download from this site. It deals with trader's personality and emotions which are inevitable in such an activity as a financial trading of any kind. Various examples and stories are presented in this book to help a trader to better understand what he must to prevent losing money and gain them instead:

Your Personality and Successful Trading - by Windsor Advisory Services

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Good News from U.S. Economy

With an impressively high ISM Services index today's macroeconomic data from United States was a very optimistic news for USD bulls. June ISM non-manufacturing index came out at 60.7% - 1% higher than May number, and a lot better than expected, since the negative change in ISM index was expected. Crude oil inventories for the previous week came out at a very good level too. They rose 3.1 million barrels - which will probably mean that there will be no problems for the U.S. holidays period. Initial jobless claims were a bit worse than expected (318,000 against 315,000) - but it's not a big deal really, especially if overall unemployment data which will come tomorrow will be OK.
As for the Eurozone - European Central Bank decided to leave the interest rates at 4% - no surprise here. But they also didn't mention any dangers of inflation, like they did before, so it might be a first sign for the end of ECB rate hike.
Bank of England increased the interest rates to 5.75% as expected. The main concern for them is still an inflationary pressure, but the biggest locomotive of the consumer prices in United Kingdom - real estate market is showing a slowdown.

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Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Independence Day and Forex

Today EUR/USD was still as it was yesterday. As I said - this week will probably be flat until Friday at least (they tend to be quite unsettled, those Fridays). Independence Day in the United States of America is keeping the big U.S. Forex players out of the market, causing a lower volatility, especially on EUR/USD (while there some minor fluctuations on GBP/USD). It is quite clear that big holidays keep flat market even more flat, so I'd avoid expecting a high volatility Forex trading opportunities tomorrow. If you are for EUR/USD, just wait for 1.3600 or 1.3650 breakout and then jump in.

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Tuesday, July 03, 2007

EUR/USD Slight Correction

Today EUR/USD retreated from its yesterday levels of 1.3630 down to 1.3600 level (with a failed try ground below 1.3600). Factory orders macroeconomic data for May came out better than expected but it still showed a decrease in this important indicator - manufacturers orders decreased by 0.5% (against 1.2% expected). But this data didn't affect Forex at all - the major bearish bars were seen four hours before it came out. It looks like EUR/USD will remain bound in 1.3600 - 1.3650 range for some time.

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Monday, July 02, 2007

WebMoney Forex Brokers

A new addition to my Forex brokers section of the site - a list of WebMoney Forex brokers - those that offer WebMoney as the option to deposit or withdraw money to/from the trading accounts. Forex traders that prefer on-line payment systems, but don't want to deal with e-gold or other browser-security system might like WebMoney e-currency system for its hi-end security and good level of service. Here is the list of all brokers that accept WebMoney:

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EUR/USD Hits Two Months High

Today Forex was a very unlucky place for U.S. dollar as the EUR/USD rallied to its two months high at 1.3630. Even good ISM index data (56% - a 1% rise - against 55% expected) couldn't help U.S. currency after last week losses. It is almost certain now that EUR/USD has broken the down-trend and is now heading north. Probable point of strong resistance can be seen at 1.3650 level, which if broken can mean a rally to 1.3800. While, stopping at 1.3650 will probably for a double-peak pattern with a new correction wave.

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Carnival of Forex Trading - July 1, 2007

Welcome to the July 1, 2007 edition of Carnival of Forex trading.

Jimmy Atkinson presents How Does Terrorism Affect Your Trading? posted at Forex Blog.

George Courtney jr presents Go Global by Investing in Foreign Currencies posted at The Authentic Bartender Blog.

Mark25 presents Forex Exchange Rate - How Does It Get Calculated? posted at HotStrategies.com.

Ralph Morgan presents Enough Wealth: Adventures in Day Trading - 12 posted at Enough Wealth.

Bryan Moore presents How to Create Synthetic FOREX Currency Pairs posted at TheFinancialWhiz.Com, saying, "This article explains the principles behind creating synthetic Forex currency pairs. The problem a lot of traders run into is that they sometimes cannot directly trade a particular currency pair from their broker, this explains how you can dissect two currency pairs to create the one you need."

That concludes this edition. Submit your blog article to the next edition of Carnival of Forex trading using our carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on our blog carnival index page.

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Sunday, July 01, 2007

IFC Markets Forex Broker

Oh, God! Fifth Forex broker with ‘Markets’ in its name! And it doesn’t offer any other market for trading except Forex. They got to love this word to insert it the broker’s title. IFC Markets is good Forex broker if you want to start with a little money (deposits from just $1) and want to deposit it via e-gold or WebMoney. They offer their own trading software which has some professional features (like multicharting) but has nod custom indicators or expert advisors. Their site is quite informative – Forex market news, IFC Markets broker news, financial calendar – all in nine different languages.

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